Oi Bibi

Obama’s intolerance of fools is noteworthy. Over this presidential incumbency he has honed his ability to hide his distaste, but not completely.

He was sorely tested once again by his nemesis Bibi Netanyahu. Obama, in spite of being blessed by a fratricidal Republican party has an intensely harsh re-election battle to face. The Jewish vote is essential. The Jewish vote has to be boosted not weakened. Nothing unites the Jews more than Holocaust fears. Nothing girds the Jews more than the twin boost of a new strength and the ability to stand alone. Bibi’s speech spoke to the Jews as Jews in a community of Jews. Obama needs the Jews as American Democrats.

Ah you ask doe that mean we Israelis, the new Jews, kowtow to America? Do we change our national interests? Do we risk extinction to keep ‘the boss’ happy? The answer is ‘No’. And here is the reason why….

It is in our vital national interest that the Iranian threat be eliminated. But this begs a question. What is the Iranian threat? The answer is not a nuclear bomb that may or may not come into existence The threat is the multiplicity of materiel and forces ranged against us. The bomb is but one. There are the vast arsenals and armies to the south & north. The dangers of which are compounded by a wounded Syria with its additional missile and chemical and biological technologies.

Iran is a cancer with secondary growths. Eradication of such a mortal threat involves reducing powerful side effects. Sometimes the side effects are more catastrophic than the cure. Before choosing the medication lets consider how do we take it and what does it involve.

Of one thing is sure. The price of oil will soar. Israel will be castigated mercilessly by a united worlds diplomacy. Cringing whining comparisons with the response to Syria’s barbaric acts will be of no avail. Is this preventable? Yes… but a regimen and plan must be in place. This involves having a functional Foreign ministry. A functional foreign ministry is a non sequitur when the Foreign Secretary is as a completely dysfunctional as is Liebermann.

We need American diplomacy. After the November election we will be faced by either an angry defeated Obama or an annoyed victorious Obama. If we attack before November Obama’s chances are severely curtailed. The damaged US economy, reeling under increased oil prices will be a probable death blow to Obama’s re- election attempts. In short Obama’s election plans include Bibi.

Obama played his only card. He gave Bibi the means to delay his attack. Bibi received the vital materiels and logistics needed by Israel. The ‘bunker busters’ and refueling capabilities are in Israel’s hands. Capability wise the US and Israel time frame are as one.

Today Bibi seems triumphant. But does today count? Apart from changing this weeks opinion polls today is almost irrelevant. Today’s relevance is that of its import on tomorrow. What does our tomorrow hold?

What are the conditions that we need to undergo our radical anti-cancer therapy? What will give us our best chance? What will give Israel maximum effect and with minimum cost?

Israel has four goals: To minimize the immediate efficacy of the Hamas, to reduce the efficacy of the Hezbollah, to reduce the efficacy of Syria and to reduce the efficacy of Syria. Israel has one danger: To avoid alienation of world opinion.

You may question the order and priorities. But in real terms with relation to immediacy of damage they’re are the right ones. The key to the first three lay in the hands of Turkey. The best way to arrive at a concord of interests with Turkey is via US diplomacy…. Obama. With Turkey aligning itself with Israel world fury after a strike with Iran will be lessened. Israel need Turkey ‘on board’— Obama can help deliver them.

Israel has to look carefully at the calendar. An attack before November will completely alienate Obama. He loses his economy and his Jewish supoort is eroded. The diplomatic costs will be immeasurable.

The answer is so simple. At least it was. It was in Israel vital interests to thank Obama. It is in Israel’s vital interest that Obama wins the election. At the very least a post November Obama must support an Israeli attack. If not we enter a period of inactivity till March. In March the incumbent Republican will declare ‘it’s too late— blame Obama’. No newly incumbent Republican President will bring his economic roof down on himself for Israel. No matter what his promises are.

A wise Bibi would have set up this deal: An attack after November if and when sanctions fail. Complete US diplomatic backing, US engendered reawakening of the Israeli – Turkish alliance of common interests. In return Bibi would ‘sanitize’ Obama’s ‘Jewish credentials’. Strengthen Obama electorally. Keep the Jews as active democrat supporters

In short on giving Obama a fighting chance Obama would give Bibi a fighting chance.

Bibi being Bibi decided that an improved fleeting popularity was of more importance.