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Smart Bombs need smart ideas

October 6, 2014

The Guardian and the Times have two different reports that compliment each other.
The Kurds are getting pushed back. The bombing is reported as ineffective. The Turks are accused of not helping the Kurds and giving ISIS prisoners in exchange for their imprisoned diplomats.
I do not know how much of this is true. From Israeli experience, hitting targets demands a lot of human intelligence on ground. It is very hard to picture it being in place.
As for aerial strategy it can only work if you are prepared to flatten everything remotely related to your target. You cannot pinpoint a moving pin. The other way is to cause so much infra structural damage that the populace ‘demand you stop’. A great idea in theory. In practice people, no matter how hard you try, stay in the buildings. Unfortunately smart bombs are almost human. They err too. And to think that the ISIS give a flying fuck about the civilians is delusional. The only things that bombing can do are to unite the bombed, provide horror PR shots of civilian casualties and give fillip to the recruitment efforts of ISIS.

The psychology here is amazing. After the Gaza war the people in Gaza had had enough but those in the West Bank wanted it to continue. In spite of the mauling a previously unpopular Hamas became popular. Thank goodness that’s resorting back. And you cannot factor into this the effect of the deeply unpopular Kleptocratic PLO.  So what is the real effect of the bombings in the Muslim population — the potential volunteer?
But the bottom line is that all assumptions about bombing are probably shallow, not thought through, wishful thinking,
At the time of Iraq Israel was reported to tell the Americans: ‘Either do it right or don’t do it at all.’ To it was added the addendum that Israel did not believe that the US could, would or even should go in.
IMO that was good advise then and now.
Aid the Kurds, Jordanians & Egyptians. Beware of the Turks, Qataris and Iranians. I wonder how long will it be till you see sympathisers of IS reacting, in the UK itself, to the bombings?
Again, the UK’s problem is the causation of volunteering, how else will it exhibit itself & how to stop all of that. And that is the problem you should be solving. A hybrid James Bond cum Biggles is not the way forward.

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